Academy Award Nominations (The Day Of)

Well, anyone who has been paying attention to the ebbs and flows of the nomination momentum (myself included) is going to tell you that they did very well with their predictions.  Why?  Are we smarter than we've been over the last few years? 

Defintely.

Oh, and mostly it's because there really weren't any surprises this year... nothing out of the blue like a Malick nomination for The New World or some foreign film making its way into the Picture or Director categories. 

If you look at my predictions, you'll see that I got 24 out of 30 correct.  My mistakes were:

• Believing in the surge of emotion around James Mangold and Walk the Line, as neither got nominated.  It was probably all those speeches by Reese and Joaquin that spun me the wrong way when they thanked Mr. Mangold.
• Being stubborn and absolutely refusing to pick Charlize Theron and Frances McDormand for North Country.  Those two picks alone illustrate how awful the field was for women this year.  The Academy couldn't find 5 quality picks in either category, so they went the easy "Afterschool Special" route.  As a lesson learned, this is the difference for me between picking who you want to be nominated and who will be nominated.  I should have known better.  I had Laura Linney and Maria Bello instead.
• Ignoring the power of "the Spielberg."  I knew he'd get nominated for Director, but Munich has created a new type of polarization: people either adored it, hated it, or couldn't care less.  It's the first time that I've ever seen indifference as a major reaction to a film that also has strong supporters and detractors.
• For the first time in approximately a gabillion years since 1981 (that's 25 years ago people), all five Best Picture nominees matched the Best Director nominees.  That never happens, so I nailed the top movies, but had Mangold and Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener) instead of Bennett (Capote) and Haggis (Crash).
• Oh, and I picked Bob Hoskins instead of Ed Harris William Hurt for Supporting Actor, but I dare anyone to care less than I do about that pick.
• I love that I picked Terrence Howard instead of Russell Crowe.  Not for me, but because I think we're all tired of Crowe being there.

But enough about me... what does all of this mean?  Where's the deep analysis?  Well, here ya go:

• With Best Picture nominations, only Crash and Munich have a shot at dethroning Brokeback.  Look for major re-releases and advertising campaigns.
• George Clooney got his three nominations (Director, Screenplay for GN&GL, Supporting Actor for Syriana).  It has become clear that charming the Academy is one road to Oscar success, and there's no one who can do that better than Clooney.
• Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 nominations?!?!  Oh, they're in categories no one cares about?  Just like the film?  Cool... 
• I just thought of this - what if Memoirs actually had turned out to be good?  It would have received record setting numbers here...
• 8 of the 10 Actors have never been nominated before (William Hurt and Joaquin Phoenix are the exceptions).
• There's no money here yet (but there will be) as Brokeback Mountain is the top grossing of the Best Picture films, with just $50 million.  Maybe that's why Walk the Line didn't get a nomination, since it broke $100 million.  ;)
• Here's Thelma Adams' list of people that never really had a shot in the first place.  There's really no Paul Giamatti situation this year, but I would love to see Jeffrey Wright win an Oscar one day.  I mean, Scarlett Johansson lost out again, but no one is going to get up in arms about that one.
• A song called, "It's Hard out There for a Pimp," got nominated for Best Song from Hustle and Flow.  That's the best nomination since the South Park numbers, including "Blame Canada."

Overall, I think David Poland sums it up nicely:

The great gets of the morning include Terrence Howard [for Best Actor], a double dip by John Williams, Capote scoring in all top categories possible except for the glaring exception of Clifton Collins, Jr in Supporting Actor, and Wally Pfister for cinematography on Batman Begins.

Memoirs of a Geisha managed to grab six Academy Awards nominations pretty much as expected... all tech categories... no Top 8... but a good day for a movie that died.

The big misses of the morning are Walk The Line, which scored only for the actors in the Top 8 and did nicely in techs with Editing, Costume, Sound Editing; Star Wars: Episode III, which will not compete with King Kong for one last crowning EFX Oscar; The Constant Gardener, which managed only Score and Editing in addition to Ms. Weisz and a happy screenplay grab; and of course, Cinderella Man, which added Editing and Make-Up to the World's Most Expensive Supporting Actor Campaign In Oscar History.

And finally, here is the numbers breakdown.  The full list is way below, but I like tracking the major categories instead, so that anomalies like Memoirs don't throw the mometum off kilter.  I mean, the top 5 in my list track to the five Best Picture nominees:

Major Nomination Leaders:

Brokeback Mountain - 6
Capote - 5
Crash - 4
Good Night, and Good Luck - 4
Munich - 3
A History of Violence - 2
North Country - 2
Syriana - 2
The Constant Gardener - 2
Walk the Line - 2
Cinderella Man - 1
Hustle & Flow - 1
Junebug - 1
Match Point - 1
Mrs. Henderson Presents - 1
Pride & Prejudice - 1
The Squid & The Whale - 1
Transamerica - 1

Total Nomination Leaders:

Brokeback Mountain - 8
Crash - 6
Good Night, and Good Luck - 6
Memoirs of a Geisha - 6
Capote - 5
Munich - 5
Walk the Line - 5
The Constant Gardener - 4
King Kong - 4
Pride & Prejudice - 4
Chronicles of Narnia - 3
Cinderella Man - 3
War of the Worlds - 3
A History of Violence - 3
Hustle & Flow - 2
Mrs. Henderson Presents - 2
North Country - 2
Syriana - 2
Transamerica - 2
Batman Begins - 1
Charlie & the Chocolate Factory - 1
Darwin's Nightmare - 1
Don't Tell - 1
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room - 1
Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire - 1
Howl's Moving Castle - 1
Joyeux Noel - 1
Junebug - 1
March of the Penguins - 1
Match Point - 1
Murderball - 1
The New World - 1
Paradise Now - 1
Sophie Scholl: The Final Days - 1
The Squid & the Whale - 1
Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith - 1
Street Fight - 1
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride - 1
Tsotsi - 1
Wallace & Gromit - 1