Craig's MovieBlog

Oscar Predictions - 2007

I guess I should throw my hat in the ring.  I feel bad about it though - this is the first year in (I don't know how long) that I haven't seen all the Best Picture contenders.  In fact, I still haven't seen The Queen, Letters from Iwo Jima, or Babel... Now that I look at the nominees again, I haven't seen any of the Best Actor films, none of the Best Actress films, and only one of the Best Director films (The Departed).

I suck.  I need more babysitters.  I shouldn't even call myself a film blogger.  Wait, I don't call myself that.  But still... this is embarrassing.

I do follow the industry closely though, watching trends, paying attention to who everyone else is picking, and I gotta say... this is going to be an interesting race because for the first time since 1995 (Braveheart) or maybe 1991 (The Silence of the Lambs), there is no obvious favorite for Best Picture.  Sure, there have been upsets (Crash over Brokeback Mountain, Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan), but leading up to the big night, there was always one film that seemed to have it in the bag.  This year, that is absolutely not the case.  As William Goldman says, "no one knows anything."

Having admitted that I now know as much (or as little) as everyone else, here are my picks for the big categories.  Note that this is who I think will win, not who I necessarily want to win:

• Best Picture: Babel, but I absolutely think The Departed, Letters from Iwo Jima, and Little Miss Sunshine all have a legitimate shot at the title.  For the first time I can remember, I can honestly say I have no idea what's going to happen here.  As far as I can tell, Dreamgirls or United 93 might still have a shot.  ;)
• Best Director: Martin Scorsese, finally... and this won't be close.
• Best Actor: Forrest Whitaker, but Peter O'Toole could easily, easily take this.  It's dead even.
• Best Actress: Helen Mirren, in a blowout.
• Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy, but Alan Arkin is a huge Academy favorite, while Murphy isn't personally well-liked, and Jeff Wells has been running a campaign against him.  Also, it's arguable that Mark Wahlberg had the most memorable role of all the supporting actors.
• Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson is still the favorite, so I'll go with her.  The Babel women will split their votes, Cate Blanchett just won this two years ago, but don't be suprised to see something wacky happen in this category with Abigail Breslin (a la, Anna Paquin, Marisa Tomei, Whoopi Goldberg, Mira Sorvino, etc.).  I mean, can an American Idol contestant really win an Oscar?  They've won Grammies...

One note that just came to me... If Peter O'Toole beats Forrest Whitaker, and Alan Arkin beats Eddie Murphy, and Abigail Breslin beats Jennifer Hudson, will there be racism cries throughout the Academy?  Just putting that out there as food for thought.

Oh, and Best Original Screenplay will be Little Miss Sunshine (wait, maybe The Queen), and Best Adapted Screenplay will be The Departed.

In case you're still looking, here's an Oscar ballot for you to make your picks with.  Have fun at the show!!!

Oscar Surprises in the Telecast?

Nikki Finke's blog, Deadline Hollywood Daily, has some interesting notes about changes to this year's Oscar broadcast.  I guess some might consider these spoilers, but seriously, if someone told you what the opening act was going to be, would that upset you?  It's not like we'll be revealing who's going to win Best Picture, or who will be most inappropriately dressed (fingers crossed for Abigail Breslin...).

Well, if that kind of news would upset you, stop reading now.

For the rest of you, head over to her Eight Spoilers on Oscar Telecast post, but I do have some thoughts on a few of them below.

• She says that the biggest news will be who is presenting the Best Director Oscar this year (Spielberg, Coppola, and Lucas), but my guess is that four hours into the broadcast, and given the collective age of those three men, most of the world is simply going to yawn.  These days Borat would get a bigger response.  Since this is the year when Martin Scorsese is finally going to get his Oscar, I guess they want to do something special.  To me though, if you really want to do something interesting, when they announce his name, he should be presented his Oscar from Clint Eastwood, Roman Polanski, Kevin Costner, Barry Levinson, and Robert Redford, the 5 directors who beat him for each of his previous nominations.  And then Marty gets to go all Mark "Dignam" Wahlberg on them onstage.
• Her favorite update is that each of the three songs nominated from Dreamgirls, will be sung by a Dreamgirl other than the one that sang it in the film.  Wow - another change that three people will notice...
• She also reports that unlike previous years, where the awards for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress come almost immediately, they are going to save them until the final 1/3 of the show.  Well, that should save some stress for people on the West Coast who struggle with the 5pm broadcast, since now there is absolutely no reason for to watch the first 3 hours of the show.  I mean, while I couldn't be more interested in Best Original Score or Best Art Direction and Best Sound Editing or Best Live Action Short (not!), I'm not sure the rest of the world feels the same way.

Oscar Tips and Tricks

Variety compiled a few bullets of Oscar trivia, which I'll just post below, because for some sick reason, I just can't get enough of this stuff:

With his eighth acting nom, for Venus, Peter O'Toole is a winner either way. If he wins, great; if not, he goes down in the record books as the actor with the most noms without a win (he was previously tied with Richard Burton).

With her 14th nom, Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) furthers her lead for most nominated actor ever. Runners-up are Jack Nicholson and Katharine Hepburn, with 12 apiece.

Kevin O'Connell, nommed for sound mixing in Apocalypto, scores his 19th nom. He furthers his status as the Academy's most nominated individual who, so far, hasn't won. Distant runners-up are composer Alex North and art director Roland Anderson, at 15 each.

Dreamgirls is the first live-action film to have three of its songs nominated. Two animated films can lay claim to the same record: The Lion King in 1994 and Beauty and the Beast in 1991.

I Need to Wake Up from An Inconvenient Truth is the first song from a docu to be nominated since More from Mondo Cane was up for the award in 1963.

Alan Arkin has gone 38 years since his last nom --1968's The Heart is a Lonely Hunter -- the same amount of time Jack Palance spent between Shane in 1953 and City Slickers in 1991. Henry Fonda is still the title holder at 41 years between acting noms.

With Little Children, Kate Winslet, 31, becomes the youngest actress to garner five noms. She has made 19 movies. Previous record holder was Olivia de Haviland, who secured her fifth at the age of 33. By that time -- 1950 -- she had made 33 films.

Oscar Nominations

When was the last time the leader in nominations (Dreamgirls) couldn't get nominated for Best Picture or Best Director?  Dreamgirls received 8, but 3 were for Best Song, followed by Babel with 7.

When was the last time that 9 of the 10 actor and actress nominees were NOT from one of the Best Pictures?  Let me put that another way... of the 5 Best Pictures, they only spawned 1 Actor or Actress nomination (Helen Mirren, The Queen).

When they said the field was wide open this year, I really had only thought of that in the Best Picture race, but the breadth of the field this year, the distinction between the Best Picture nominations and the rest of the nominees has never been more vast.

Are you telling me that Leo was better in Blood Diamond that he was in The Departed?

Check out the Best Actor nominees - outside of Blood Diamond, none of those movies received any other major nominations, no other actors, not best picture, no screenplay, nothing.  Just bizarre...

Does anyone else realize that Kate Winslet is about to lose her 5th Oscar nomination in 11 years?  Or that Meryl Streep is about to lose for the 12th time?  At least she has two wins... unlike Ms. Winslet.

Here we go...

BEST PICTURE
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forrest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland

BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on A Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat
Children Of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes On A Scandal

Viewer Mail

From a reader:

So called Best picture?  Well I don't know but it seems to me that racism is alive and well in the movie industry.  I won't say what race I am but the fact that Dreamgirls had limited openings on Christmas Day with an official opening to all theaters on Jan. 19th 2007 seems a bit strange!  Heaven forbid a Jewish producer; DreamWorks and an all black cast take 1 place in revenue. I personally witnessed packed crowds (mainly white over 50) fighting for tickets and only after the limited seating had sold out did they settle for other features.  Yet despite the opposition and distribution control placed on Dreamgirls by the powers in Hollywood it still managed to do 9 million and take 7th place with both hands tied behind its back!  I wonder what it would have done on a fair playing field?  Well the more things change the more they stay the same. We won't even talk about Borat!

My response:

Lots and lots of movies open on limited screens over the holidays to create demand, and then widen their screencount.  They do this to qualify for the Oscars by releasing in LA and/or NYC during 2006, but then build momentum throughout the months of January and February which are closer to the Oscars, hoping to affect how votes are cast. 

This happens every year, especially for movies that are aiming for Academy Awards.  Go back and look at the release patterns for Chicago, Syriana, Gangs of New York, The Hours, Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Million Dollar Baby, etc.... even films this year like Volver, Children of Men, and Notes on a Scandal are all being released the same way, and none of them have predominantly African-American casts.

Frankly, I think it's exciting from a racial perspective that you claim that there are "white" packed crowds who want to see this film.  That is enough for me to be optimistic.

But seriously... you think people with all the clout of Spielberg, Katzenberg, and Geffen are going to be "controlled" by some sort of master controller somewhere?  C'mon... this is nothing more than a PR team strategically releasing a film for the Oscars.

Happy new year,

Craig

United 93 Takes the Lead

You know... I could actually see this film winning the big one.  I just hope this is Marty's year (finally).

Latest awards tracker

Current Leaders: United 93, Martin Scorsese, Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, Jackie Earle Haley, Jennifer Hudson.

Only the races for Best Picture, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress are close right now.

Golden Globe Nominations 2006

My notes on the nominations:

• Bobby?  Really?  Gosh, I wonder if Sharon Stone will finally show up at the Golden Globes this year...
• Leo vs. Leo in Best Actor and Clint vs. Clint in Best Director.  I guess that means Ryan Gosling doesn't get to bring Rachel McAdams to the party, and Bill Condon doesn't get a nomination for Dreamgirls.  Neither does Paul Greengrass for United 93.
• Look at the films nominated for Best Actress (Drama): Volver, Notes on a Scandal, Sherrybaby, The Queen, and Little Children.  Wow - are any of those playing anywhere in this country other than the coasts?  The combined box office take of those films is: $29.3 million, and $24.7 of that comes from The Queen.
• United 93 seems to have lost some momentum here, but the Hollywood Foreign Press likes to nominate stars... and the film had none - unlike Bobby.
• The real surprises to me are Babel racking up the most (7) nods, Mark Wahlberg and Thank You For Smoking getting noticed (deservedly), Notes on a Scandal getting 3, and going back to the Jack Sparrow well for a second time.
• Oh, and on the TV side, Alec Baldwin got nominated for his work on 30 Rock (perfect) but Studio 60 got zippo.  That's gotta hurt NBC, since they air the Golden Globes.  And I did not see a nomination for Dexter's Michael C. Hall coming...
• Best line from David Poland: "Harvey got his meaningless Bobby nomination. Thank God Roger Friedman will have somewhere to sit at the awards."

Best Picture (Drama)

• Babel
• Bobby
• The Departed
• Little Children
• The Queen

Best Actor (Drama)

• Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
• Leonardo DiCaprio - The Departed
• Peter O'Toole - Venus
• Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness
• Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland

Best Actress (Drama)

• Penelope Cruz - Volver
• Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
• Maggie Gyllenhall - Sherrybaby
• Helen Mirren - The Queen
• Kate Winslet - Little Children

Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)

• Borat
• The Devil Wears Prada
• Dreamgirls
• Little Miss Sunshine
• Thank You For Smoking

Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

• Annette Bening - Running with Scissors
• Toni Collette - Little Miss Sunshine
• Beyonce Knowles - Dreamgirls
• Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
• Rene Zellweger - Miss Potter

Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

• Sasha Baron Cohen - Borat
• Johnny Depp - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
• Aaron Eckhart - Thank You for Smoking
• Chiwetel Ejiofor - Kinky Boots
• Will Ferrell - Stranger Than Fiction

Best Supporting Actor

• Ben Affleck - Hollywoodland
• Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
• Jack Nicholson - The Departed
• Brad Pitt - Babel
• Mark Wahlberg - The Departed

Best Supporting Actress

• Adriana Barraza - Babel
• Kate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
• Emily Blunt - The Devil Wears Prada
• Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
• Rinko Kikuchi - Babel

Best Director

• Clint Eastwood - Flags of Our Fathers
• Clint Eastwood - Letters from Iwo Jima
• Stephen Frears - The Queen
• Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Babel
• Martin Scorsese - The Departed

Best Screenplay

• Babel
• Little Children
• Notes on a Scandal
• The Departed
• The Queen

The 2006 Academy Awards Tracker

I've finally gotten off my patootie, and I've compiled my annual Academy Awards tracker. 

Clearly the momentum is behind Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, and Martin Scorsese right now, but as always, while this is interesting, it doesn't always predict Oscar success.  If it did, we'd be heralding Brokeback Mountain or Sideways as Best Picture winners.  (Crash only won one pre-Oscar Best Picture.)  Note that the so-called favorite for Best Picture, Dreamgirls, has no Best Picture wins, but Jennifer Hudson is leading in the Supporting Actress category.

I love the fact that the only other Best Actor winner other than Forest Whitaker so far has been Borat.

The scoreboard currently looks like this:

Best Picture:

• Letters from Iwo Jima - 2 wins
• United 93 - 2 wins
• The Departed - 1
• Little Children - 1
• The Queen - 1

Best Director:

• Martin Scorsese, The Departed - 4 wins
• Paul Greengrass, United 93 - 2
• Stephen Frears, The Queen - 1

Best Actor

• Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland - 6 wins
• Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat - 2

Best Actress

• Helen Mirren, The Queen - 7 wins

Best Supporting Actor

• Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children - 2 wins
• Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond - 2 wins
• Michael Sheen, The Queen - 2 wins
• Mark Wahlberg, The Departed - 1

Best Supporting Actress

• Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls - 3 wins
• Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration - 2
• Adriana Barraza, Babel - 1
• Shareeka Epps, Half Nelson - 1
• Luminita Gheorghiu, The Death of Mr. Lazarescu - 1

Academy Awards: One Man's Odds for Best Picture

Yesterday's Los Angeles Times printed Patrick Goldstein's latest odds on the Best Picture candidates, as there are 7 weeks to go before the nominations are announced..  Check out the full article for all the detail, but in summary:

The Favorites:

• Dreamgirls: 4-1
• The Queen: 6-1
• The Departed: 9-1
• Little Miss Sunshine: 10-1

Contenders:

• Flags of our Fathers: 12-1
• Letters from Iwo Jima: 12-1
• The Good Shepherd: 14-1
• Babel: 15-1
• United 93: 16-1
• World Trade Center: 16-1
• Volver: 18-1

Longshots:

• Children of Men: 20-1
• The Pursuit of Happyness: 22-1
• Little Children: 25-1
• Blood Diamond: 30-1
• Bobby: 40-1
• Apocalypto: 60-1

Meanwhile, back at the Hall of Justice... I mean, Movie City News, The Gurus o' Gold have compiled their latest votes for all the categories.  Here's their top 10 for Best Picture Nominees:

1. Dreamgirls
2. The Departed
3. The Queen
4. Babel
5. Little Miss Sunshine
6. Letters from Iwo Jima
7. Volver
8. Flags of our Fathers
9. Little Children
10. The Pursuit of Happyness

The Oscars Already?

Movie City News has posted a Pre-Season, Pre-Toronto, Pre-Oscar Preview, and only Clint Eastwood's Flags of our Fathers received a vote from every analyst.  Dreamgirls missed on just one ballot.

Here's the top 10... in August, for what it's worth:

1. Flags of our Fathers, directed by Clint Eastwood, written by Paul Haggis and William Broyles Jr.
2. Dreamgirls, directed by Bill Condon, based on the Broadway show, starring Jamie Foxx, Eddie Murphy, and Beyonce Knowles
3. The Good German, directed by Steven Soderbergh, written by Paul Attanasio, starring George Clooney (of course) and Cate Blanchett
4. Babel, directed by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, starring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett (again)
5. World Trade Center, directed by Oliver Stone, starring Nicolas Cage
6. The Departed, directed by Martin Scorsese, remake of Infernal Affairs, starring everyone: Jack Nicholson, Leonardo DiCaprio, Matt Damon, Mark Wahlberg, etc...
7. All the King's Men, directed by Steven Zaillan, starring everyone else: Sean Penn, Jude Law, Kate Winslet, Mark Ruffalo, James Gandolfini, Patricia Clarkson, etc...
8. A Good Year, directed by Ridley Scott, starring Russell Crowe and Albert Finney
9. United 93, directed by Paul Greengrass - the only film on the list already released
10. The Queen, directed by Stephen Frears, starring Helen Mirren