Craig's MovieBlog

The Mainstream Oscar Nominations

The headlines will go to There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men (and rightfully so) for leading the field with 8 nominations each.

However, each year, I like to go through the 8 mainstream categories (Picture, Director, Acting, Writing) and redo the tallies, just so it's easier to see whether a film racked up a bunch of nominations thanks to categories lie Best Costume Editing by a Farm Animal.  Anyway, here's the new list... if you're only looking at the 40 nominations from the mainstream categories:

Michael Clayton - 6
Juno - 4
No Country for Old Men - 4
There Will Be Blood - 4
Atonement - 3
Away From Her - 2
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - 2
The Savages - 2
American Gangster - 1
Charlie Wilson's War - 1
Eastern Promises - 1
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - 1
Gone Baby Gone - 1
I'm Not There - 1
In the Valley of Elah - 1
Into the Wild - 1
La Vie en Rose - 1
Lars and the Real Girl - 1
Ratatouille - 1
Sweeney Todd - 1
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - 1

Tracking Oscar Season

I've updated my page tracking the various year-end awards, and trends are definitely emerging.  The Oscars don't always (or ever) hold to this form, since we're tracking film critics instead of actual Oscar voters, but seeing wave after wave of the same people winning these awards must affect the way voters might think.

Almost nothing has changed since before the holidays, with the Big Board looking like this:

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Best Picture: No Country For Old Men over There Will Be Blood (17-3).  I guess the only thing that can stop this film is if lots of people go to see it, and have the same reaction to the last 20 minutes that I did.  Namely, "huh"?  If Juno or Michael Clayton can pull off an upset, I'd be stoked... but I don't see it happening.

Best Director: The Coen Brothers over Paul Thomas Anderson (15-4).  This one is done.  I think they've got it in the bag.  If Tim Burton and Sweeney Todd push themselves over the edge, I'd be shocked.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis over George Clooney (12-5).  DDL could win an Oscar any time he steps in the ring.  It's almost not fair.  By the way... could someone tell Paramount Vintage to OPEN THIS DAMN MOVIE IN SEATTLE SO I CAN SEE IT?!?!?  Cool - thanks.  Also, does it mean anything that Johnny Depp received no critic awards and no SAG nomination?  Just throwing that out there.

Best Actress:  Here's where the biggest only change took place - Julie Christie over Ellen Page (11-9).  Julie Christie was dominating before the holidays, but Juno's current box office momentum sent Ellen Page soaring up into what might be the only battle of the evening.  Marion Cotillard could still win, but she's not really on this radar screen.

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem over Casey Affleck (15-3).  I think this one is done too.  Even people who didn't love this movie know in their hearts that Bardem's performance was devastatingly terrifying.

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan over Cate Blanchett (14-4).  Even though this looks like a blowout, in my heart I believe that this one is still open, simply because I think approximately 4 people around the country have seen Gone Baby Gone and I'm Not There combined, and no one had heard of Amy Ryan before this film.  Does the combination of a previously unknown actress in a film that no one saw scream Academy Award winner to you?  I can definitely see Tilda Swinton pulling off an upset here.

Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody (Juno) will win this.  I wish I could give it to Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton, but it's not to be.  Original Screenplay usually goes to the quirky film that gets the Best Picture nomination, but not the win (Pulp Fiction, Sideways, Lost in Translation, Almost Famous, etc.).  You know... for the kids.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Coens again seem to own this, with the only real competition coming from Paul Thomas Anderson.  It would be interesting if they wanted to recognize both films this year, giving Picture and Director to No Country for Old Men, but giving Screenplay to There Will Be Blood.  Hmmm....

Sigh...

First I was depressed last week by Anne Thompson's piece on how Michael Clayton isn't making money at the box office, but I didn't want to write about it just yet.

But today, Hollywood Wiretap and the Los Angeles Times are both covering the issue on a broader scale.  No independent films are making money, and the major studio dramas are struggling also.  Here's a sampling, in no particular order:

In the Valley of Elah	Warner Independent	$6.6 million
Lars and the Real Girl	MGM	$0.3 million
The Hunting Party	MGM/Weinstein	$0.9 million
Sleuth	Sony Pictures Classics	$0.1 million
Reservation Road	Focus	$0.04 million
Lust, Caution	Focus	$2.1 million
Rendition	New Line	$4.1 million
Things We Lost in the Fire	Paramount/DreamWorks	$1.6 million
The Darjeeling Limited	Fox Searchlight	$3.8 million
Gone Baby Gone	Miramax	$5.5 million
Into the Wild	Paramount Vantage	$6.5 million
Elizabeth: The Golden Age	Universal	$11.8 million
Michael Clayton	Warner Bros.	$22.7 million
The Assassination of Jesse James...	Warner Bros.	$2.2 million
Eastern Promises	Focus	$16.9 million

There are plenty of excuses reasons for this - poor marketing, too many dramas in the mix, piracy, NC-17 ratings, some of these films haven't gone wide yet (but they won't if they don't perform well when they launch), poor reviews, and of course the easy way out: the depressing state of the world, "the war in Iraq, the housing slump, global warming, the fires..." says the LA Times.  What?  No Halo 3 to blame?  I enjoy pointing at the dumbing down of society, and we're all too busy at home worrying about Britney's kids and watching Dancing with the Stars or Deal or No Deal, but I think that's a scapegoat as well.

The theory that holds the most water to me, is that they are victims of their own success, causing a glut of films that were only attractive to limited audience already:

"Companies such as Miramax did so well that almost every entertainment conglomerate started its own specialty division, and a range of independent financiers, such as Sidney Kimmel Entertainment, also jumped into the fray."

It's also going to be crucially important for studios to keep costs low and perhaps think about this business model differently if there's a much more crowded market for competition.  There used to be a formula detailing how to platform release a film like Brokeback Mountain, The Queen, or even My Big Fat Greek Wedding, but with a limited audience, limited theaters and screens, and a much wider set of options for that small audience to choose from, studios may have to redefine what success means on this smaller scale.

Thank goodness Wild Hogs made $168 million and a sequel is on the way.  Shoot me.

UPDATE: Jeff Wells has jumped into the fray:

I slipped into a preview screening of [Before the Devil Knows You're Dead] last night. It was showing to a group of KCET subscribers -- an older, fair-minded group that likes adult prestige films -- and you just could feel the lack of excitement in the room as they walked out. You could cut it with a knife. They'd just seen one of the year's absolute best and most of them were thinking "hmmm, downer....not very uplifting!"

Maybe Ben Should Stay Behind the Camera?

Gone Baby Gone among top crime movies of decade says Kirk Honeycutt of the Hollywood Reporter.

Gone Baby Gone Trailer

Yes, it looks like Mystic River 2, but that doesn't mean that Gone Baby Gone doesn't have potential.  I'm also way too excited to see what Casey Affleck can do in a starring role in a major studio release.

Oh, and it's directed by Ben Affleck... don't tell anyone.