Craig's MovieBlog

10 Best Picture Nominees?

What the flagnod?!?

I haven’t written anything in almost 3 months (oh, and how great was The Hangover?), but this news is enough to temporarily get me out of retirement.

This year’s Academy Awards will have 10 Best Picture nominees.

Craig’s theory:  Typically, when you only have 5 nominees, you are choosing high-end art films that might be the best films of the year, but are generally films that didn’t do as well at the box office.  So, if fewer people have seen the films, fewer people care who wins.

With 10 nominees, there’s more of an opportunity for films like Wall-E or The Dark Knight to make the cut (or this year, Up, Star Trek, or even, yes, The Hangover) to get in the race.  That means more people watching, which means higher ad rates and more money for the Academy.

Read about it at The Hot Blog, or In Contention.  I’m sure there will be more to come.

Poking My Head Up Before Watchmen Comes Out

I know.  Nothing on the Globes, nothing on the Oscars.  That’s right – the inspiration just isn’t there.  I’ll just say this:  I loved the Oscars this year and what they did with the show.  They could have killed the second musical act (with Beyonce and Zac Efron) to save time, but the show finished ahead of schedule anyway.  They also could have done some more thinking about who was giving the speeches to the various nominees.  DeNiro to Penn was awesome, but Cotillard to Kate Winslet?  How was that not Emma Thompson?  Adrien Brody to Richard Jenkins?  Cuba Gooding Jr.?!?!?

And with that, let’s move on.

Watchmen is coming out this week and David Poland has pointed out some interesting commentary from one of the cast members. 

Matthew Goode plays Andrew Veidt/Ozymandias in the movie, expected to be one of the biggest hits of 2009.

But the 30-year-old actor – who has previously appeared in Match Point and Brideshead Revisited – went on the offensive after learning hardcore fans are saying he doesn’t suit the character before even watching the film.

He said: “The negative feedback is relayed by my friends. I think the fanboys aren’t particularly happy – there are a load of people they’d have rather had in before me.

“It’s already being slated before they’ve seeing anything.

“But if fanboys still hate the film after going and seeing it, they can all line up and s*** my d***.

“I don’t give a f***.”

Matthew added: “I’m having a child and that’s more important to me – so I don’t give a f***. Grow a d***.”

Is it bad that I think that he actually has the proper perspective here?

Now, there are people that have seen the film, like David Edelstein of New York Magazine, who says, it is an “awe-inspiring corpse: huge, noisy, gaseously distended by its own dystopia.”

Good times.

The Academy Award Race Has Begun

As I do every year, I’ll try to keep track of all the industry awards as they’re doled out, leading up to the Academy Awards.  Again, because I have two young children, and the last two films I’ve seen were Bolt and Wall-E, I’ll try to refrain from commenting or editorializing.  :)

So far, after just 4 award announcements, the key races look like this:

Best Picture	Best Director
Slumdog Millionaire – 2 Milk - 1 Wall-E - 1	Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire – 2 David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 1 Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky - 1
Best Actor	Best Actress
Sean Penn, Milk – 2 Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino – 1 Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler - 1	Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky – 2 Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married – 1 Meryl Streep,Doubt - 1
Best Supporting Actor	Best Supporting Actress
Josh Brolin, Milk - 2 Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight – 2	Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona – 3 Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married - 1

Doubt Trailer

… and three more nominees for Academy Awards this year:  Meryl Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Amy Adams.

It looks like Meryl is going for a Angela Lansbury in The Manchurian Candidate sort of vibe.  Oh, wait.  She actually did play the Angela Lansbury in The Manchurian Candidate remake.

Nevermind.

The Soloist Trailer

Maybe they can split the Best Actor award?  Enjoy the trailer for The Soloist.

Has anyone, ever… ever, had a better professional year than Robert Downey Jr. in 2008?

Predicting Tonight's Oscars

I've been super busy, family, work, life, honest to blog... blah, blah, blah, so I apologize for the lack of writing.  I'm about to take the kids out, but I figured I had to get a few chicken scratches out before tonight's big ceremony. 

Can't wait for Jon... but let's keep the strike jokes to a minimum - most of the country doesn't care.

Anyway, I wrote about this a while back, but here are my predictions (not what I want to win... what I think will win) for the categories that we care about:

Best Picture: No Country For Old Men will win - I'm feeling 100% confident about this one.

Best Director: The Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men again - Super high confidence... 100%

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood.  Clooney would have had a shot in any other year that DDL didn't perform.  Confidence = 98%

Best Actress:  This is a total mystery to me.  I'll pick Julie Christie, Away From Her, but it could easily go to Marion Cotillard, who apparently has been making a big late push, and maybe they split the vote and give it to Juno's Ellen Page.  Confidence = 35%

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men.  This is done and done Friend-o.  Confidence = 100%

Best Supporting Actress: Another wide open one.  The critics love Amy Ryan and Cate Blanchett, but no one saw those movies and Cate literally just won for The Aviator when she played a real person.  I think Tilda Swinton gets this.  She's put up a great body of work already, the Academy gets to give a nod to Michael Clayton (which will unfortunately lose everywhere else), and it was one of the three phenomenal performances in my favorite film of the year.  Still... confidence = 60%

Best Original Screenplay: I still think Diablo Cody for Juno will win this, but I'm wondering if she's lost some ground to Tony Gilroy's Michael Clayton, just because I'm not sure the Academy wants to put her up onstage (you know... the whole former stripper thing), but it's really the one script that everyone talked about all season.  Confidence = 85%

Best Adapted Screenplay: It seems like the Coens should get this, but I'm still wondering if there's enough sentiment to give something to There Will Be Blood.  I'm picking No Country For Old Men, but I'll put it at 75% confidence.

Sean Young is Classy

Who gets drunk and heckles Julian Schnabel at the DGAs?  Sean Young... that's who.

An extremely drunk Sean Young heckled Julian Schnabel the moment he walked on stage to accept his medallion.  She was quickly 86'd by security and tried to throw a punch at those ejecting her from the venue.  She really ruined Julian's moment and it was kind of sad.  He looked into the audience and said "Who said that?"  She blurted out something else unintelligible and then he said "Perhaps you'd like to finish my speech," said "thank you very much" and started to step away from the podium.  He came back, of course, but it seemed he was visibly pissed and upset by the interruption. 

Daniel Day-Lewis is Classy

Awesome.

 

The Mainstream Oscar Nominations

The headlines will go to There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men (and rightfully so) for leading the field with 8 nominations each.

However, each year, I like to go through the 8 mainstream categories (Picture, Director, Acting, Writing) and redo the tallies, just so it's easier to see whether a film racked up a bunch of nominations thanks to categories lie Best Costume Editing by a Farm Animal.  Anyway, here's the new list... if you're only looking at the 40 nominations from the mainstream categories:

Michael Clayton - 6
Juno - 4
No Country for Old Men - 4
There Will Be Blood - 4
Atonement - 3
Away From Her - 2
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - 2
The Savages - 2
American Gangster - 1
Charlie Wilson's War - 1
Eastern Promises - 1
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - 1
Gone Baby Gone - 1
I'm Not There - 1
In the Valley of Elah - 1
Into the Wild - 1
La Vie en Rose - 1
Lars and the Real Girl - 1
Ratatouille - 1
Sweeney Todd - 1
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - 1

Oscar Nominations - Craig's Thoughts

Overall, no complaints.  This has been a very, very strong year, but if they have to cancel an Oscar ceremony due to the strike, this is the one.  The box office of the Best Picture nominees are staggeringly low (save Juno), so ratings will be down this year anyway.

Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Into the Wild, Sweeney Todd, and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly get shut out here.

Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Tommy Lee Jones is the surprise here, meaning Emile Hirsch gets left out.  Also no James McAvoy...

Actress
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

I guess I understand why people don't want to nominate Angelina Jolie for A Mighty Heart, but Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth 2?  C'mon people...  that's just lazy.  And what did Kiera Knightley do to piss off the Academy so badly?  I guess that's how Cate and Laura Linney snuck in.

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James...
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Yep, sounds right.  Nothing surprising here.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

I'm just gonna say it.  Ruby Dee is the only African American nominated in a major category.  Happy day after MLK day.

Best Director
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Holy crap - I can't believe Juno and Michael Clayton snuck in here!  (Doing a little happy dance...)  So Sean Penn is out, Joe Wright can't get a nomination even with Atonement's tracking shot that people couldn't shut up about, and Tim Burton is still on the outside looking in.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Yep - nice surprise for Sarah Polley, but this is going to the Coens.

Best Original Screenplay
Diablo Cody, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

Sounds about right.  All the best picture nominees are accounted for in the writing categories (even Atonement)

Tracking Oscar Season

I've updated my page tracking the various year-end awards, and trends are definitely emerging.  The Oscars don't always (or ever) hold to this form, since we're tracking film critics instead of actual Oscar voters, but seeing wave after wave of the same people winning these awards must affect the way voters might think.

Almost nothing has changed since before the holidays, with the Big Board looking like this:

_____________________________________________

Best Picture: No Country For Old Men over There Will Be Blood (17-3).  I guess the only thing that can stop this film is if lots of people go to see it, and have the same reaction to the last 20 minutes that I did.  Namely, "huh"?  If Juno or Michael Clayton can pull off an upset, I'd be stoked... but I don't see it happening.

Best Director: The Coen Brothers over Paul Thomas Anderson (15-4).  This one is done.  I think they've got it in the bag.  If Tim Burton and Sweeney Todd push themselves over the edge, I'd be shocked.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis over George Clooney (12-5).  DDL could win an Oscar any time he steps in the ring.  It's almost not fair.  By the way... could someone tell Paramount Vintage to OPEN THIS DAMN MOVIE IN SEATTLE SO I CAN SEE IT?!?!?  Cool - thanks.  Also, does it mean anything that Johnny Depp received no critic awards and no SAG nomination?  Just throwing that out there.

Best Actress:  Here's where the biggest only change took place - Julie Christie over Ellen Page (11-9).  Julie Christie was dominating before the holidays, but Juno's current box office momentum sent Ellen Page soaring up into what might be the only battle of the evening.  Marion Cotillard could still win, but she's not really on this radar screen.

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem over Casey Affleck (15-3).  I think this one is done too.  Even people who didn't love this movie know in their hearts that Bardem's performance was devastatingly terrifying.

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan over Cate Blanchett (14-4).  Even though this looks like a blowout, in my heart I believe that this one is still open, simply because I think approximately 4 people around the country have seen Gone Baby Gone and I'm Not There combined, and no one had heard of Amy Ryan before this film.  Does the combination of a previously unknown actress in a film that no one saw scream Academy Award winner to you?  I can definitely see Tilda Swinton pulling off an upset here.

Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody (Juno) will win this.  I wish I could give it to Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton, but it's not to be.  Original Screenplay usually goes to the quirky film that gets the Best Picture nomination, but not the win (Pulp Fiction, Sideways, Lost in Translation, Almost Famous, etc.).  You know... for the kids.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Coens again seem to own this, with the only real competition coming from Paul Thomas Anderson.  It would be interesting if they wanted to recognize both films this year, giving Picture and Director to No Country for Old Men, but giving Screenplay to There Will Be Blood.  Hmmm....

Craigslist

Happy 2008.  Here's what caught my eye while I was out and about...

• Kris Tapley manages to get us very excited about 2008's lineup already.
• Brian at Lazy Eye puts together a great post on the Five Best Actors Yet To Win An Oscar.  I did something like this a few years ago on the blog and broke it up into three categories.  Two years later, I still think it's worth a read (patting myself on the back).
• Vulture predicts the year ahead.  They're so good, so snarky.
• The Reel Deal says there's something wrong with every single good movie of 2007.  And this is different from other years, how?
• Lazy Eye strikes again with a post about how a movie can't be considered great if you only want to see it once.  Then he retracts it, mainly due to Schindler's List.  However, he caught my eye with his quote "My favorite movies include Pulp Fiction, Goodfellas, Taxi Driver, The Graduate and Fargo. If any of those films come on TV, I stop what I’m doing and I’ll watch for 30 minutes or so."  This happens to me all the time, but only with a few select films: Pulp Fiction, 12 Monkeys, Fight Club...  I literally can't change the channel if I stumble across it. 
• Six studios made over $1 billion this year.  With a B.  That breaks the previous record of 4 studios passing that threshold.  But hey... $0.04 per DVD sounds reasonable, right?
• Alvin and the Chipmunks has now made over $154 million domestically.  It's the 12th biggest movie of the year, passing Knocked Up.  If it breaks $200 million, I swear to god I'm making my own freaking chipmunk movie next year.

Charting the Award Winners

I've been working on bringing my annual award tracker from my old website over to the blog, and while there are some small issues that I'm trying to work out, I think I'm at a good place where I can publish it now. 

Let me know if you have issues, and check back often to see who's got all the momentum heading into this year's Oscars.  (Just wondering, how is Jon Stewart going to host this show without WGA writers?)

Craigslist

Lots going on out there while I was traveling, so I thought I'd just throw them onto the pile for you:

• The critics awards have begun in a big way, and while MCN has their page, I'll probably find time to pull my annual recap together also. 
• Jim Hill creates an AMAZING list of cameos and cross-references throughout Pixar's film history.  For someone like myself who has been forced to watch Cars several hundred times, these are incredible.  But... he didn't call out the cameo from the Apple car in the first race.  It's just black and white, it wears the number 84, and it's only onscreen for a second or two. 
• David Poland calls Nikki Finke "a piece of shit."  Hee hee... 
• Anne Thompson reminds us that George Clooney is brilliant:  Why were films like Syriana and Good Night and Good Luck embraced by audiences while the more recent rash of political films have not been? "People like ambiguity," Clooney suggested, admitting that he had not seen all the films. "They don't want to be told what they should think."

The Oscar Movie

Over on The Lost Boy, I discovered a brilliant clip that you need to watch now.  It comes courtesy of The Soup, which I don't watch, but I have fallen deeply in love with its host Joel McHale after listening to him ad lib with Adam Corolla on the latter's morning radio show.

If you want to know how to get nominated for an Oscar, just watch: