Craig's MovieBlog

The Mainstream Oscar Nominations

The headlines will go to There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men (and rightfully so) for leading the field with 8 nominations each.

However, each year, I like to go through the 8 mainstream categories (Picture, Director, Acting, Writing) and redo the tallies, just so it's easier to see whether a film racked up a bunch of nominations thanks to categories lie Best Costume Editing by a Farm Animal.  Anyway, here's the new list... if you're only looking at the 40 nominations from the mainstream categories:

Michael Clayton - 6
Juno - 4
No Country for Old Men - 4
There Will Be Blood - 4
Atonement - 3
Away From Her - 2
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - 2
The Savages - 2
American Gangster - 1
Charlie Wilson's War - 1
Eastern Promises - 1
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - 1
Gone Baby Gone - 1
I'm Not There - 1
In the Valley of Elah - 1
Into the Wild - 1
La Vie en Rose - 1
Lars and the Real Girl - 1
Ratatouille - 1
Sweeney Todd - 1
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - 1

Oscar Nominations - Craig's Thoughts

Overall, no complaints.  This has been a very, very strong year, but if they have to cancel an Oscar ceremony due to the strike, this is the one.  The box office of the Best Picture nominees are staggeringly low (save Juno), so ratings will be down this year anyway.

Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Into the Wild, Sweeney Todd, and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly get shut out here.

Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Tommy Lee Jones is the surprise here, meaning Emile Hirsch gets left out.  Also no James McAvoy...

Actress
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

I guess I understand why people don't want to nominate Angelina Jolie for A Mighty Heart, but Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth 2?  C'mon people...  that's just lazy.  And what did Kiera Knightley do to piss off the Academy so badly?  I guess that's how Cate and Laura Linney snuck in.

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James...
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Yep, sounds right.  Nothing surprising here.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

I'm just gonna say it.  Ruby Dee is the only African American nominated in a major category.  Happy day after MLK day.

Best Director
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Holy crap - I can't believe Juno and Michael Clayton snuck in here!  (Doing a little happy dance...)  So Sean Penn is out, Joe Wright can't get a nomination even with Atonement's tracking shot that people couldn't shut up about, and Tim Burton is still on the outside looking in.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Sarah Polley, Away from Her
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Yep - nice surprise for Sarah Polley, but this is going to the Coens.

Best Original Screenplay
Diablo Cody, Juno
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

Sounds about right.  All the best picture nominees are accounted for in the writing categories (even Atonement)

Tracking Oscar Season

I've updated my page tracking the various year-end awards, and trends are definitely emerging.  The Oscars don't always (or ever) hold to this form, since we're tracking film critics instead of actual Oscar voters, but seeing wave after wave of the same people winning these awards must affect the way voters might think.

Almost nothing has changed since before the holidays, with the Big Board looking like this:

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Best Picture: No Country For Old Men over There Will Be Blood (17-3).  I guess the only thing that can stop this film is if lots of people go to see it, and have the same reaction to the last 20 minutes that I did.  Namely, "huh"?  If Juno or Michael Clayton can pull off an upset, I'd be stoked... but I don't see it happening.

Best Director: The Coen Brothers over Paul Thomas Anderson (15-4).  This one is done.  I think they've got it in the bag.  If Tim Burton and Sweeney Todd push themselves over the edge, I'd be shocked.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis over George Clooney (12-5).  DDL could win an Oscar any time he steps in the ring.  It's almost not fair.  By the way... could someone tell Paramount Vintage to OPEN THIS DAMN MOVIE IN SEATTLE SO I CAN SEE IT?!?!?  Cool - thanks.  Also, does it mean anything that Johnny Depp received no critic awards and no SAG nomination?  Just throwing that out there.

Best Actress:  Here's where the biggest only change took place - Julie Christie over Ellen Page (11-9).  Julie Christie was dominating before the holidays, but Juno's current box office momentum sent Ellen Page soaring up into what might be the only battle of the evening.  Marion Cotillard could still win, but she's not really on this radar screen.

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem over Casey Affleck (15-3).  I think this one is done too.  Even people who didn't love this movie know in their hearts that Bardem's performance was devastatingly terrifying.

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan over Cate Blanchett (14-4).  Even though this looks like a blowout, in my heart I believe that this one is still open, simply because I think approximately 4 people around the country have seen Gone Baby Gone and I'm Not There combined, and no one had heard of Amy Ryan before this film.  Does the combination of a previously unknown actress in a film that no one saw scream Academy Award winner to you?  I can definitely see Tilda Swinton pulling off an upset here.

Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody (Juno) will win this.  I wish I could give it to Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton, but it's not to be.  Original Screenplay usually goes to the quirky film that gets the Best Picture nomination, but not the win (Pulp Fiction, Sideways, Lost in Translation, Almost Famous, etc.).  You know... for the kids.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Coens again seem to own this, with the only real competition coming from Paul Thomas Anderson.  It would be interesting if they wanted to recognize both films this year, giving Picture and Director to No Country for Old Men, but giving Screenplay to There Will Be Blood.  Hmmm....

Roger Ebert's Top 10 of 2007

Caught Juno today.  Pretty darn perfect if you ask me... or Roger Ebert:

1. Juno
2. No Country for Old Men
3. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
4. Atonement
5. The Kite Runner
6. Away From Her
7. Across the Universe
8. La Vie en Rose
9. The Great Debaters
10. Into the Wild

Conspicuously Missing: Sweeney Todd, Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood, Charlie Wilson's War, The Savages, American Gangster, Zodiac, Once, etc...

Sweeney Todd Trailer

Tim Burton and Johnny Depp are at it again, but contrary to appearances, it's not Edward Scissorhands: The Musical.  Instead, it's a cinematic take on Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street.

Depp's creation does seem like a mix of Eddie Scissorhands, Beetlejuice, and Captain Jack Sparrow, but it is only a matter of time for the Academy does give Depp a little gold statue.  Just not sure this is the role.  His Best Actor chances will depend on whether the movie is critically and/or universally loved.